Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.

Methods

DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest

SUBMITTER: Lee W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7869581 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature