The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Background: ​ During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ​ We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction nu

SUBMITTER: Leng T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7871360 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature