Prioritizing investments in rapid response vaccine technologies for emerging infections: A portfolio decision analysis.

ABSTRACT: This study reports on the application of a Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) to support investment decisions of a non-profit funder of vaccine technology platform development for rapid response to emerging infections. A value framework was constructed via document reviews and stakeholder consultations. Probability of Success (PoS) data was obtained for 16 platform projects through expert assessments and stakeholder portfolio preferences via a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). The structure of preferences and the uncertainties in project PoS suggested a non-linear, stochastic value maximization problem. A simulation-optimization algorithm was employed, identifying optimal portfolios under different budget constraints. Stochastic dominance of the optimization solution was tested via mean-var

SUBMITTER: Gouglas D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7877621 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature