Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population suscep

SUBMITTER: Nova N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7880875 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature