Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections.

ABSTRACT: Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or -) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same inst

SUBMITTER: Hirabayashi Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7881105 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature