Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions.

ABSTRACT: We assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global fossil fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions over the two-year horizon 2020Q1-2021Q4. We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, which captures complex spatial-temporal interdependencies across countries associated with the international propagation of economic impact due to the virus spread. The model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output, exchange rates and equity prices, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO₂ emitting countries spanning the period 1984Q1-2019Q4. We produce forecasts of coal, natural gas and oil consumption, conditional on GDP growth scenarios based on alternative IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts that were made befor

SUBMITTER: Smith LV 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7883727 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature