Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease.

ABSTRACT: Background: it is widely assumed that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, there is substantial evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection can occur. We infer a curve of self-clearance by time since infection and explore its implications for TB epidemiology. Methods and findings: data for self-clearance were inferred using post-mortem and tuberculin-skin-test reversion studies. A cohort model allowing for self-clearance was fitted in a Bayesian framework before estimating the lifetime risk of TB disease and the population infected with Mtb in India, China and Japan in 2019. We estimated that 24.4% (17.8-32.6%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI)) of individuals self-

SUBMITTER: Emery JC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7893269 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature