Harnessing peak transmission around symptom onset for non-pharmaceutical intervention and containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case studies, we construct an epidemiological model that focuses on transmission around the symptom onset. The model is calibrated against incubation period and pairwise transmission statistics during the initial outbreaks of the pandemic outside Wuhan with minimal non-pharmaceutical interventions. Mathematical treatment of the model yields explicit expressions for the size of latent and pre-symptomatic subpopulations during the exponential growth phase, with the local epidemic growth rate as input. We then explore reduction of the basic reproduction nu

SUBMITTER: Tian L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7895830 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature