Dataset Information

Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories.

ABSTRACT: This study develops a modelling framework for simulating the spread of infectious diseases within real cities. Digital copies of Birmingham (UK) and Bogotá (Colombia) are generated, reproducing their urban environment, infrastructure and population. The digital inhabitants have the same statistical features of the real population. Their motion is a combination of predictable trips (commute to work, school, etc.) and random walks (shopping, leisure, etc.). Millions of individuals, their encounters and the spread of the disease are simulated by means of high-performance computing and massively parallel algorithms for several months and a time resolution of 1 minute. Simulations accurately reproduce the COVID-19 data for Birmingham and Bogotá both before and during the lockdown. The model has only one adjustable parameter calculable in the early stages of the pandemic. Policymakers can use our digital cities as virtual laboratories for testing, predicting and comparing the effects of policies aimed at containing epidemics.

SUBMITTER: Alexiadis A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7897638 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories.

Alexiadis A A Albano A A Rahmat A A Yildiz M M Kefal A A Ozbulut M M Bakirci N N Garzón-Alvarado D A DA Duque-Daza C A CA Eslava-Schmalbach J H JH

Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 20210127 2245

This study develops a modelling framework for simulating the spread of infectious diseases within real cities. Digital copies of Birmingham (UK) and Bogotá (Colombia) are generated, reproducing their urban environment, infrastructure and population. The digital inhabitants have the same statistical features of the real population. Their motion is a combination of predictable trips (commute to work, school, etc.) and random walks (shopping, leisure, etc.). Millions of individuals, their encounter ...[more]

PMID: 33633493

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Project description:Klebsiella variicola is a pathogen that is increasingly recognized as being associated with human infections, but the methods available to clinical microbiology laboratories for accurate identification are limited. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of identification of K. variicola by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry using genetic identification with multiplex PCR as the reference method. Antimicrobial susceptibilities and virulence of K. variicola strains were also investigated. Fifty-five Klebsiella pneumoniae, 26 K. variicola, and 2 Klebsiella quasipneumoniae clinical strains were used for evaluation. Both MALDI Biotyper with library version 9 and Klebsiella MALDI TypeR, a web-based species identification tool using MALDI-TOF data, accurately identified all K. variicola strains. In addition, two strains of K. quasipneumoniae were accurately identified with Klebsiella MALDI TypeR. Whole-genome sequencing confirmed the accurate identification to the subspecies level by Klebsiella MALDI TypeR for four strains (two strains each of K. variicola subsp. variicola and K. quasipneumoniae subsp. similipneumoniae). While 13 strains, 3 strains, and 1 strain of K. pneumoniae showed nonsusceptibility to ampicillin-sulbactam, ceftriaxone, and meropenem, respectively, all strains of K. variicola were susceptible to all tested antimicrobial agents. Although two K. variicola strains were positive for the string test, no K. variicola strains harbored any of the genes associated with hypervirulence of K. pneumoniae. Accurate identification of the K. pneumoniae complex, including K. variicola, by MALDI-TOF in clinical microbiology laboratories is expected to clarify the clinical characteristics of each species in the future. IMPORTANCE Recent widespread use of bacterial whole-genome sequencing analysis has resulted in the proposal of novel bacterial species and reclassification of taxonomy. Accurate methods for identification of bacterial species in clinical microbiology laboratories are essential to accumulate information on the clinical characteristics of each bacterial species. Klebsiella variicola is a member of the Klebsiella pneumoniae complex, and its association with human infections has been increasingly recognized, but accurate identification methods approved for use in clinical microbiology laboratories have been limited thus far. The findings of the present study suggest that K. variicola can be accurately identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry using updated library or web-based identification tools. Accurate identification will promote exploration of clinical characteristics of K. variicola.

Dataset Information

Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories.

Publications

Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories.

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