Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States.

ABSTRACT: Measles incidence in the United States has grown dramatically, as vaccination rates are declining and transmission internationally is on the rise. Because imported cases are necessary drivers of outbreaks in non-endemic settings, predicting measles outbreaks in the US depends on predicting imported cases. To assess the predictability of imported measles cases, we performed a regression of imported measles cases in the US against an inflow variable that combines air travel data with international measles surveillance data. To understand the contribution of each data type to these predictions, we repeated the regression analysis with alternative versions of the inflow variable that replaced each data type with averaged values and with versions of the inflow variable that used modeled inputs.

SUBMITTER: Poterek ML 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7913265 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature