An Optimal Nucleic Acid Testing Strategy for COVID-19 during the Spring Festival Travel Rush in Mainland China: A Modelling Study.

ABSTRACT: Western countries are experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths due to increasing public transportation during holiday seasons. This study aimed to explore whether mainland China will face an epidemic rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, when millions of Chinese people travel across the country, and investigate which nucleic acid testing (NAT) strategy is optimal to contain the epidemic. A microsimulation model was used to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission among railway travelers and evaluated the effects of various NAT strategies. An extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was built to forecast local transmission during the Spring Festival period under different scenarios of testing strategies. The total number of infections, testing burden, and medical

SUBMITTER: Zhou YH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7918574 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature