Quantifying the transmission advantage associated with N501Y substitution of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK: an early data-driven analysis.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zhao S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928809 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Quantifying the transmission advantage associated with N501Y substitution of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK: an early data-driven analysis.
Zhao Shi S Lou Jingzhi J Cao Lirong L Zheng Hong H Chong Marc K C MKC Chen Zigui Z Chan Renee W Y RWY Zee Benny C Y BCY Chan Paul K S PKS Wang Maggie H MH
Journal of travel medicine 20210201 2
Similar Datasets
Project description:Beginning in the summer of 2020, a variant of SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in the United Kingdom (UK). This B.1.1.7 variant increased rapidly in prevalence among sequenced strains, attributed to an increase in infection and/or transmission efficiency. The UK variant has 19 nonsynonymous mutations across its viral genome including 8 substitutions or deletions in the spike protein, which interacts with cellular receptors to mediate infection and tropism. Here, using a reverse genetics approach, we show that, of the 8 individual spike protein substitutions, only N501Y exhibited consistent fitness gains for replication in the upper airway in the hamster model as well as primary human airway epithelial cells. The N501Y substitution recapitulated the phenotype of enhanced viral transmission seen with the combined 8 UK spike mutations, suggesting it is a major determinant responsible for increased transmission of this variant. Mechanistically, the N501Y substitution improved the affinity of the viral spike protein for cellular receptors. As suggested by its convergent evolution in Brazil and South Africa, our results indicate that N501Y substitution is a major adaptive spike mutation of major concern.
| S-EPMC7986995 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The B.1.1.7 variant (also known as Alpha) of SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in the UK in the summer of 2020. The prevalence of this variant increased rapidly owing to an increase in infection and/or transmission efficiency1. The Alpha variant contains 19 nonsynonymous mutations across its viral genome, including 8 substitutions or deletions in the spike protein that interacts with cellular receptors to mediate infection and tropism. Here, using a reverse genetics approach, we show that of the 8 individual spike protein substitutions, only N501Y resulted in consistent fitness gains for replication in the upper airway in a hamster model as well as in primary human airway epithelial cells. The N501Y substitution recapitulated the enhanced viral transmission phenotype of the eight mutations in the Alpha spike protein, suggesting that it is a major determinant of the increased transmission of the Alpha variant. Mechanistically, the N501Y substitution increased the affinity of the viral spike protein for cellular receptors. As suggested by its convergent evolution in Brazil, South Africa and elsewhere2,3, our results indicate that N501Y substitution is an adaptive spike mutation of major concern.
| S-EPMC8900207 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to global health, and the emerging mutation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes is one of the major challenges of disease control. Considering the growth of epidemic curve and the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in Brazil, the role of locally prevalent E484K and N501Y substitutions in contributing to the epidemiological outcomes is of public health interest for investigation. We developed a likelihood-based statistical framework to reconstruct reproduction numbers, estimate transmission advantage associated with different SARS-CoV-2 variants regarding the marking (identifying) 484K and 501Y substitutions (including Alpha, Zeta, and Gamma variants) in Brazil, and explored the interactive effects of genetic activities on transmission advantage marked by these two mutations. We found a significant transmission advantage associated with the 484K/501Y variants (including P.1 or Gamma variants), which increased the infectivity significantly by 23%. In contrast and by comparison to Gamma variants, E484K or N501Y (including Alpha or Zeta variants) substitution alone appeared less likely to secure a concrete transmission advantage in Brazil. Our finding indicates that the combined impact of genetic activities on transmission advantage marked by 484K/501Y outperforms their independent contributions in Brazil, which implies an interactive effect in shaping the increase in the infectivity of COVID-19. Future studies are needed to investigate the mechanisms of how E484K and N501Y mutations and the complex genetic mutation activities marked by them in SARS-CoV-2 affect the transmissibility of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8592180 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The emergence and rapid spread of the B.1.1.7 lineage (VOC-202012/01) SARS-CoV-2 variant has aroused global concern. The N501Y substitution is the only mutation in the interface between the RBD of B.1.1.7 and ACE2, raising concerns that its recognition by neutralizing antibodies may be affected. Here, we assessed the neutralizing activity and binding affinity of a panel of 12 monoclonal antibodies against the wild type and N501Y mutant SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus and RBD protein, respectively. We found that the neutralization activity and binding affinity of most detected antibodies (10 out of 12) were unaffected, although the N501Y substitution decreased the neutralizing and binding activities of CB6 and increased that of BD-23. These findings could be of value in the development of therapeutic antibodies.
| S-EPMC8081001 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As COVID-19 is posing a serious threat to global health, the emerging mutation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes, for example, N501Y substitution, is one of the major challenges against control of the pandemic. Characterizing the relationship between mutation activities and the risk of severe clinical outcomes is of public health importance for informing the healthcare decision-making process. Using a likelihood-based approach, we developed a statistical framework to reconstruct a time-varying and variant-specific case fatality ratio (CFR), and to estimate changes in CFR associated with a single mutation empirically. For illustration, the statistical framework is implemented to the COVID-19 surveillance data in the United Kingdom (UK). The reconstructed instantaneous CFR gradually increased from 1.0% in September to 2.2% in November 2020 and stabilized at this level thereafter, which monitors the mortality risk of COVID-19 on a real-time basis. We identified a link between the SARS-CoV-2 mutation activity at molecular scale and COVID-19 mortality risk at population scale, and found that the 501Y variants may slightly but not significantly increase 18% of fatality risk than the preceding 501N variants. We found no statistically significant evidence of change in COVID-19 mortality risk associated with 501Y variants, and highlighted the real-time estimating potentials of the modelling framework.
| S-EPMC8070306 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8313414 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities using compartmental modelling approaches suggest that outbreaks are almost inevitable. We constructed a network-based model to capture the interactions of a student population in different settings (housing, social and study). For a single academic term of a representative campus-based university, we ran a susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered type epidemic process, parameterised according to available estimates for SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the impact of: adherence to (or effectiveness of) isolation and test and trace measures; room isolation of symptomatic students; and supplementary mass testing. With all adhering to test, trace and isolation measures, we found that 22% (7%-41%) of the student population could be infected during the autumn term, compared to 69% (56%-76%) when assuming zero adherence to such measures. Irrespective of the adherence to isolation measures, on average a higher proportion of students resident on-campus became infected compared to students resident off-campus. Room isolation generated minimal benefits. Regular mass testing, together with high adherence to isolation and test and trace measures, could substantially reduce the proportion infected during the term compared to having no testing. Our findings suggest SARS-CoV-2 may readily transmit in a university setting if there is limited adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions and/or there are delays in receiving test results. Following isolation guidance and effective contact tracing curbed transmission and reduced the expected time an adhering student would spend in isolation.
| S-EPMC7611483 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 varies at the dominant viral genome sequence and minor genomic variant population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an early substitution in the genome was the D614G change in the spike protein, associated with an increase in transmissibility. Genomes with D614G are accompanied by a P323L substitution in the viral polymerase (NSP12). However, P323L is not thought to be under strong selective pressure.ResultsInvestigation of P323L/D614G substitutions in the population shows rapid emergence during the containment phase and early surge phase during the first wave. These substitutions emerge from minor genomic variants which become dominant viral genome sequence. This is investigated in vivo and in vitro using SARS-CoV-2 with P323 and D614 in the dominant genome sequence and L323 and G614 in the minor variant population. During infection, there is rapid selection of L323 into the dominant viral genome sequence but not G614. Reverse genetics is used to create two viruses (either P323 or L323) with the same genetic background. L323 shows greater abundance of viral RNA and proteins and a smaller plaque morphology than P323.ConclusionsThese data suggest that P323L is an important contribution in the emergence of variants with transmission advantages. Sequence analysis of viral populations suggests it may be possible to predict the emergence of a new variant based on tracking the frequency of minor variant genomes. The ability to predict an emerging variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the global landscape may aid in the evaluation of medical countermeasures and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
| S-EPMC10009825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines ("lockdowns") that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.
| S-EPMC7164555 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, as it manifested in India in April 2020, showed marked heterogeneity in its transmission. Here, we used data collected from contact tracing during the lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 in Punjab, a major state in India, to quantify this heterogeneity, and to examine implications for transmission dynamics. We found evidence of heterogeneity acting at multiple levels: in the number of potentially infectious contacts per index case, and in the per-contact risk of infection. Incorporating these findings in simple mathematical models of disease transmission reveals that these heterogeneities act in combination to strongly influence transmission dynamics. Standard approaches, such as representing heterogeneity through secondary case distributions, could be biased by neglecting these underlying interactions between heterogeneities. We discuss implications for policy, and for more efficient contact tracing in resource-constrained settings such as India. Our results highlight how contact tracing, an important public health measure, can also provide important insights into epidemic spread and control.
| S-EPMC8219474 | biostudies-literature