Development and validation of a machine learning model predicting illness trajectory and hospital utilization of COVID-19 patients: A nationwide study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to severe strain on hospital capacity in many countries. We aim to develop a model helping planners assess expected COVID-19 hospital resource utilization based on individual patient characteristics.

Materials and methods

We develop a model of patient clinical course based on an advanced multistate survival model. The model predicts the patient's disease course in terms of clinical states-critical, severe, or moderate. The model also predicts hospital utilization on the level of entire hospitals or healthcare systems. We cross-validated the model using a nationwide registry following the day-by-day clinical status of all hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel from March 1 to May 2, 2020 (n = 2703).

Resu

SUBMITTER: Roimi M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928913 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature