Patterns of heavy drinking behaviour over age and birth cohorts among Chinese men: a Markov model.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To estimate the age patterns and cohort trends in heavy drinking among Chinese men from 1993 to 2011 and to project the future burden of heavy drinking through 2027.

Design

We constructed a Markov cohort model that simulates age-specific heavy drinking behaviours for a series of cohorts of Chinese men born between 1922 and 1993 and fitted the model to longitudinal data on drinking patterns (1993-2015). We projected male prevalence of heavy drinking from 2015 through 2027 with and without modification of heavy drinking behaviours.

Participants

A cohort of Chinese men who were born between 1922 and 1993.

Main outcome measures

Outcomes included age-specific and birth cohort-specific rates of initiating, quitting and reinitiating heavy drinking from 1993

SUBMITTER: Lee K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7929815 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature