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Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

ABSTRACT: Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.

SUBMITTER: Morrison CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7934962 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

Morrison Catriona A CA Butler Simon J SJ Robinson Robert A RA Clark Jacquie A JA Arizaga Juan J Aunins Ainars A Baltà Oriol O Cepák Jaroslav J Chodkiewicz Tomasz T Escandell Virginia V Foppen Ruud P B RPB Gregory Richard D RD Husby Magne M Jiguet Frédéric F Kålås John Atle JA Lehikoinen Aleksi A Lindström Åke Å Moshøj Charlotte M CM Nagy Károly K Nebot Arantza Leal AL Piha Markus M Reif Jiří J Sattler Thomas T Škorpilová Jana J Szép Tibor T Teufelbauer Norbert N Thorup Kasper K van Turnhout Chris C Wenninger Thomas T Gill Jennifer A JA

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20210303 1946

Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abund ...[more]

PMID: 33653129

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Project description:IntroductionThe 2015 Sustainable Development Goals include the objective of reducing premature mortality from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one-third by 2030. Accomplishing this objective has demographic implications with relevance for countries' health systems and costs. However, evidence on the system-wide implications of NCD targets is limited.MethodsWe developed a cohort-component model to estimate demographic change based on user-defined disease-specific mortality trajectories. The model accounts for ageing over 101 annual age cohorts, disaggregated by sex and projects changes in the size and structure of the population. We applied this model to the context of Bangladesh, using the model to simulate demographic outlooks for Bangladesh for 2015-2030 using three mortality scenarios. The 'status quo' scenario entails that the disease-specific mortality profile observed in 2015 applies throughout 2015-2030. The 'trend' scenario adopts age-specific, sex-specific and disease-specific mortality rate trajectories projected by WHO for the region. The 'target' scenario entails a one-third reduction in the mortality rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases between age 30 and 70 by 2030.ResultsThe status quo, trend and target scenarios projected 178.9, 179.7 and 180.2 million population in 2030, respectively. The cumulative number of deaths during 2015-2030 was estimated at 17.4, 16.2 and 15.6 million for each scenario, respectively. During 2015-2030, the target scenario would avert a cumulative 1.73 million and 584 000 all-cause deaths compared with the status quo and trend scenarios, respectively. Male life expectancy was estimated to increase from 71.10 to 73.47 years in the trend scenario and to 74.38 years in the target scenario; female life expectancy was estimated to increase from 73.68 to 75.34 years and 76.39 years in the trend and target scenarios, respectively.ConclusionThe model describes the demographic implications of NCD prevention and control targets, estimating the potential increase in life expectancy associated with achieving key NCD reduction targets. The results can be used to inform future health system needs and to support planning for increased healthcare coverage in countries.

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Dataset Information

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

Publications

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

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