Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity.

ABSTRACT: The contributions of asymptomatic infections to herd immunity and community transmission are key to the resurgence and control of COVID-19, but are difficult to estimate using current models that ignore changes in testing capacity. Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, we show that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, ranging from 13 to 18%, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed. Asymptomatic infections contribute substantially to herd immunity, and to community transmission together with presymptomatic ones. If asymptomatic infections transmit at similar rates as symptomatic ones, the overall reproductive number across all classes is larger than often assumed, with estimates rangin

SUBMITTER: Subramanian R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7936345 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature