Dataset Information

[Evaluation of social distancing measures on the transmissibility of COVID-19 in rural areas. Retrospective logitudinal study of posible cases].

ABSTRACT:

Aim

To evaluate the social distance effect on the daily frequency of possible SARS-CoV-2 cases in Primary Care, in relation to the predictive model Kermack-McKendrick.

Methods

Longitudinal retrospective study in 2 rural populations of Aragon (13,579h). A time series evaluation with a t-Student analysis was carry on, during the first 70 days of the pandemic. A simple Kermack-McKendrick predictive model was compared with the possible COVID-19 cases. Complementary ANOVA analysis to assess the before-after number of daily cases, follow-up days and days from symptoms onset to first contact with Primary Health Care.

Results

Three hundred and fifty-nine cases were detected (53.4% women; 70.7% under 60). Primary Care followed 95.3% of cases. The number of cases during the first social distancing strategies was higher in comparison with the model (P=.004, P=.006 and P=.004) with a media of decreases of 6.7 possible cases by series. In relation to the lockdown period the model and cases are close (P=.608 and P=.093), with an average decrease of 1.8 cases per series. During post-containment, the number of cases per day (P<.001) and days of follow-up (P<.001) increased.

Conclusions

Social distancing and containment measures were effective in reducing the number of possible COVID-19 cases in rural areas. Primary Care followed most of the cases.

SUBMITTER: Pena-Galo E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7938792 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

[Evaluation of social distancing measures on the transmissibility of COVID-19 in rural areas. Retrospective logitudinal study of posible cases].

Peña-Galo E E Turón-Alcaine J M JM Gracia-Carrasco E E Alcedo-González J J

Semergen 20210308 3

<h4>Aim</h4>To evaluate the social distance effect on the daily frequency of possible SARS-CoV-2 cases in Primary Care, in relation to the predictive model Kermack-McKendrick.<h4>Methods</h4>Longitudinal retrospective study in 2 rural populations of Aragon (13,579h). A time series evaluation with a t-Student analysis was carry on, during the first 70 days of the pandemic. A simple Kermack-McKendrick predictive model was compared with the possible COVID-19 cases. Complementary ANOVA analysis to a ...[more]

PMID: 33812795

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Project description:Social distancing measures implemented by governments worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic have proven an effective intervention to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. There is a growing literature on predictors of adherence behaviours to social distancing measures, however, there are no comprehensive insights into the nature and types of non-adherence behaviours. To address this gap in the literature, we studied non-adherence in terms of counts of infringements and people's accounts on their behaviours in a sample of North London residents. We focused on the following social distancing rules: keeping 2 mts. distancing, meeting family and friends, and going out for non-essential reasons. A mixed-methods explanatory sequential design was used comprising an online survey (May 1-31, 2020) followed by semi-structured in-depth interviews held with a purposive sample of survey respondents (August 5 -September 21, 2020). A negative binomial regression model (quantitative) and Framework Analysis (qualitative) were undertaken.681 individuals completed the survey, and 30 individuals were interviewed. We integrated survey and interview findings following three levels of the Social Ecological model: individual, interpersonal and community levels. We identified non-adherence behaviours as unintentional (barriers beyond individual's control) and intentional (deliberate decision). Unintentional adherence was reported by interviewees as, lack of controllability in keeping 2 mts. distancing, environmental constraints, social responsibility towards the community and feeling low risk. Intentional non-adherence was statistically associated with and reported as lack of trust in Government, support from friends, and lack of knowledge about rules. In addition, interviewees reported individual risk assessment and decision making on the extent to following the rules, and perceived lack of adherence in the local area. Our findings indicate that unintentional and intentional non-adherence should be improved by Government partnerships with local communities to build trust in social distancing measures; tailored messaging to young adults emphasising the need of protecting others whilst clarifying the risk of transmission; and ensuring COVID-secured environments by working with environmental health officers.

Project description:ImportancePolicies to promote social distancing can minimize COVID-19 transmission but come with substantial social and economic costs. Quantifying relative preferences among the public for such practices can inform locally relevant policy prioritization and optimize uptake.ObjectiveTo evaluate relative utilities (ie, preferences) for COVID-19 pandemic social distancing strategies against the hypothetical risk of acquiring COVID-19 and anticipated income loss.Design, setting, and participantsThis survey study recruited individuals living in the Missouri area from May to June 2020 via randomly distributed unincentivized social media advertisements and local recruitment platforms for members of minority racial and ethnic groups. Participants answered 6 questions that asked them to choose between 2 hypothetical counties where business closures, social distancing policy duration, COVID-19 infection risk, and income loss varied.Main outcomes and measuresReweighted population-level relative preferences (utilities) for social distancing policies, subgroups, and latent classes.ResultsThe survey had a 3% response rate (3045 of 90 320). Of the 2428 respondents who completed the survey, 1669 (75%) were 35 years and older, 1536 (69%) were women, and 1973 (89%) were White. After reweighting to match Missouri population demographic characteristics, the strongest preference was for the prohibition of large gatherings (mean preference, -1.43; 95% CI, -1.67 to -1.18), with relative indifference to the closure of social and lifestyle venues (mean preference, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.17). There were weak preferences to keep outdoor venues (mean preference, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.61) and schools (mean preference, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.30) open. Latent class analysis revealed 4 distinct preference phenotypes in the population: risk averse (48.9%), conflicted (22.5%), prosocial (14.9%), and back to normal (13.7%), with men twice as likely as women to belong to the back to normal group than the risk averse group (relative risk ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.54 to 3.12).Conclusions and relevanceIn this survey study using a discrete choice experiment, public health policies that prohibited large gatherings, as well as those that closed social and lifestyle venues, appeared to be acceptable to the public. During policy implementation, these activities should be prioritized for first-phase closures. These findings suggest that policy messages that address preference heterogeneity (eg, focusing on specific preference subgroups or targeting men) could improve adherence to social distancing measures for COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Dataset Information

[Evaluation of social distancing measures on the transmissibility of COVID-19 in rural areas. Retrospective logitudinal study of posible cases].

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

[Evaluation of social distancing measures on the transmissibility of COVID-19 in rural areas. Retrospective logitudinal study of posible cases].

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