Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, associated deaths and impact of key risk factors in England.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 caseloads in England have passed through a first peak, and at the time of this analysis appeared to be gradually increasing, potentially signalling the emergence of a second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths at small-area resolution, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at high spatial resolution in coming weeks. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical space-time SEIR model to assess the spatio

SUBMITTER: Sartorius B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7940626 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature