Predicting the cumulative number of disaster deaths during the early stage of earthquakes.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The quantitative measurement of the anticipated number of disaster deaths is very important shortly after the mainshock because the forecasted fatalities could help determine the size of the health and medical services team to be deployed. This study aimed to devise a simple method to predict the cumulative number of deaths during the immediate or early stage of a large earthquake.

Methods

We analyzed six earthquakes in Japan that involved at least 20 deaths, 1990-2018. Analyzing statistical patterns in the cumulative number of deaths, we used three models-the exponential model, the Weibull model, and the percentile-based model-to predict the likely number of deaths during the early stage of earthquakes.

Results

The median time required to reach the median

SUBMITTER: Fujimoto M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7940899 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature