Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios.

Design

We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrict

SUBMITTER: Frost I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7941678 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature