Long-term projections of economic growth in the 47 prefectures of Japan: An application of Japan shared socioeconomic pathways.

ABSTRACT: Assessing climate change impacts on local communities is an urgent task for national and subnational governments. The impact assessment requires socioeconomic scenarios, including a long-term outlook for demographic and economic indices. In Japan, the National Institute for Environmental Studies developed the Japan Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (JPNSSPs) and presented regional population scenarios corresponding to five different storylines. However, there exists no quantitative information about changes in local economies under the population scenarios. This study examines the economic activities in Japan's 47 prefectures using statistical models and calculates changes in the major economic indices (e.g., production, capital stock, and labor population) until 2100. The economic projection

SUBMITTER: Honjo K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7944044 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature