Determining the level of social distancing necessary to avoid future COVID-19 epidemic waves: a modelling study for North East London.

ABSTRACT: Determining the level of social distancing, quantified here as the reduction in daily number of social contacts per person, i.e. the daily contact rate, needed to maintain control of the COVID-19 epidemic and not exceed acute bed capacity in case of future epidemic waves, is important for future planning of relaxing of strict social distancing measures. This work uses mathematical modelling to simulate the levels of COVID-19 in North East London (NEL) and inform the level of social distancing necessary to protect the public and the healthcare demand from future COVID-19 waves. We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model describing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in NEL, calibrated to data on hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospital discharges and in-hospital d

SUBMITTER: Cheetham N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7952900 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature