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Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments.

ABSTRACT: Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

SUBMITTER: Khan Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7954813 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments.

Khan Zarrar Z Iyer Gokul G Patel Pralit P Kim Son S Hejazi Mohamad M Burleyson Casey C Wise Marshall M

Nature communications 20210312 1

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using t ...[more]

PMID: 33712591

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Project description:Worldwide, many coastal freshwater ecosystems suffer from seawater intrusion. In addition to this stressor, it is likely that the biota inhabiting these ecosystems will also need to deal with climate change-related temperature fluctuations. The resilience of populations to long-term exposure to these stressors will depend on their genetic diversity, a key for their adaptation to changing environments. Accordingly, this study aimed to understand the long-term effects of salinity and temperature on the population density dynamics of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus by considering intra-specific variability. Six clonal lineages of B. calyciflorus, exhibiting differential lethal sensitivity (LC50,24 h) to salinity, were exposed for at least 34 days, to a control and to artificial seawater (at a conductivity corresponding to the LC70,24 h for the most tolerant clonal lineage = 9.89 mS/cm), under three temperatures: 17, 20 (standard) and 23 °C. Long-term exposure to artificial seawater affected population densities, leading to the extirpation of some salinity-tolerant clonal lineages earlier than that of salinity-sensitive lineages. This inversion in short- and long-term sensitivity may suggest a higher susceptibility of populations when exposed to long periods of increased salinity. The negative effects caused by artificial seawater were enhanced at 17 °C and 23 °C, with an even earlier occurrence of extirpation of some clonal lineages, namely, two clonal lineages considered tolerant to artificial seawater. The results suggest the potential synergistic effects of the two abiotic stressors when combined. Overall, a lack of association between the clonal lineages' short- and long-term sensitivity to salinity or their sensitivity to salinity under different temperature scenarios was observed. These results suggest an increased risk to the resilience of B. calyciflorus populations exposed to climate change-related scenarios of increased salinity and temperature fluctuations owing to an enhanced reduction in their genetic variability.

Dataset Information

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments.

Publications

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments.

Similar Datasets

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