Modelling the impact of interventions on the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak including age segregation.

ABSTRACT: In this work, a SEIR-type mathematical model of the COVID-19 outbreak was developed that describes individuals in compartments by infection stage and age group. The model assumes a close well-mixed community with no migrations. Infection rates and clinical and epidemiological information govern the transitions between stages of the disease. The impact of specific interventions (including the availability of critical care) on the outbreak time course, the number of cases and the outcome of fatalities were evaluated. Data available from the COVID-19 outbreak from Spain as of mid-May 2020 was used. Key findings in our model simulation results indicate that (i) universal social isolation measures appear effective in reducing total fatalities only if they are strict and the number of daily inte

SUBMITTER: Rodriguez J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7959345 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature