Taking account of asymptomatic infections: A modeling study of the COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) cruise ship has provided empirical data to study the transmission potential of COVID-19 with the presence of pre/asymptomatic cases. We studied the changes in R0 on DP from January 21 to February 19, 2020 based on chain binomial models under two scenarios: no quarantine assuming a random mixing condition, and quarantine of passengers in cabins-passengers may get infected either by an infectious case in a shared cabin or by pre/asymptomatic crew who continued to work. Estimates of R0 at the beginning of the epidemic were 3.27 (95% CI, 3.02-3.54) and 3.78 (95% CI, 3.49-4.09) respectively for serial intervals of 5 and 6 days; and when quarantine started, with the reported asymptomatic ratio 0.505, R0 rose to 4.18 (95%CI, 3.86-4.52) and 4.73 (

SUBMITTER: Huang LS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7963096 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature