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A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.

ABSTRACT: More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

SUBMITTER: Cui RY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7966364 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.

Cui Ryna Yiyun RY Hultman Nathan N Cui Diyang D McJeon Haewon H Yu Sha S Edwards Morgan R MR Sen Arijit A Song Kaihui K Bowman Christina C Clarke Leon L Kang Junjie J Lou Jiehong J Yang Fuqiang F Yuan Jiahai J Zhang Weirong W Zhu Mengye M

Nature communications 20210316 1

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early reti ...[more]

PMID: 33727547

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Project description:BackgroundEmissions from coal power plants have decreased over recent decades due to regulations and economics affecting costs of providing electricity generated by coal vis-à-vis its alternatives. These changes have improved regional air quality, but questions remain about whether benefits have accrued equitably across population groups.ObjectivesWe aimed to quantify nationwide long-term changes in exposure to particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) associated with coal power plant SO2 emissions. We linked exposure reductions with three specific actions taken at individual power plants: scrubber installations, reduced operations, and retirements. We assessed how emissions changes in different locations have influenced exposure inequities, extending previous source-specific environmental justice analyses by accounting for location-specific differences in racial/ethnic population distributions.MethodsWe developed a data set of annual PM2.5 source impacts ("coal PM2.5") associated with SO2 emissions at each of 1,237 U.S. coal-fired power plants across 1999-2020. We linked population-weighted exposure with information about each coal unit's operational and emissions-control status. We calculate changes in both relative and absolute exposure differences across demographic groups.ResultsNationwide population-weighted coal PM2.5 declined from 1.96μg/m3 in 1999 to 0.06 μg/m3 in 2020. Between 2007 and 2010, most of the exposure reduction is attributable to SO2 scrubber installations, and after 2010 most of the decrease is attributable to retirements. Black populations in the South and North Central United States and Native American populations in the western United States were inequitably exposed early in the study period. Although inequities decreased with falling emissions, facilities in states across the North Central United States continue to inequitably expose Black populations, and Native populations are inequitably exposed to emissions from facilities in the West.DiscussionWe show that air quality controls, operational adjustments, and retirements since 1999 led to reduced exposure to coal power plant related PM2.5. Reduced exposure improved equity overall, but some populations continue to be inequitably exposed to PM2.5 associated with facilities in the North Central and western United States. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11605.

Dataset Information

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.

Publications

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.

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