Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.

ABSTRACT:

Background

With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches to dengue forecasting have used seasonal climate forecasts, but the predictive ability of a system using different lead times in a year-round prediction system has been seldom explored. Moreover, the transition from theoretical to operational systems integrated with disease control activities is rare.

Methods and findings

We introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system for Vietnam where Earth observations, seasonal cl

SUBMITTER: Colon-Gonzalez FJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7971894 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature