Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia.

Methodology/principal findings

We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June

SUBMITTER: Koolhof IS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7978384 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature