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Cloud icing by mineral dust and impacts to aviation safety.

ABSTRACT: Ice particles in high-altitude cold clouds can obstruct aircraft functioning. Over the last 20 years, there have been more than 150 recorded cases with engine power-loss and damage caused by tiny cloud ice crystals, which are difficult to detect with aircraft radars. Herein, we examine two aircraft accidents for which icing linked to convective weather conditions has been officially reported as the most likely reason for catastrophic consequences. We analyze whether desert mineral dust, known to be very efficient ice nuclei and present along both aircraft routes, could further augment the icing process. Using numerical simulations performed by a coupled atmosphere-dust model with an included parameterization for ice nucleation triggered by dust aerosols, we show that the predicted ice particle number sharply increases at approximate locations and times of accidents where desert dust was brought by convective circulation to the upper troposphere. We propose a new icing parameter which, unlike existing icing indices, for the first time includes in its calculation the predicted dust concentration. This study opens up the opportunity to use integrated atmospheric-dust forecasts as warnings for ice formation enhanced by mineral dust presence.

SUBMITTER: Nickovic S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7979792 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cloud icing by mineral dust and impacts to aviation safety.

Nickovic Slobodan S Cvetkovic Bojan B Petković Slavko S Amiridis Vassilis V Pejanović Goran G Solomos Stavros S Marinou Eleni E Nikolic Jugoslav J

Scientific reports 20210319 1

Ice particles in high-altitude cold clouds can obstruct aircraft functioning. Over the last 20 years, there have been more than 150 recorded cases with engine power-loss and damage caused by tiny cloud ice crystals, which are difficult to detect with aircraft radars. Herein, we examine two aircraft accidents for which icing linked to convective weather conditions has been officially reported as the most likely reason for catastrophic consequences. We analyze whether desert mineral dust, known to ...[more]

PMID: 33742004

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Project description:IntroductionIn the aviation industry, safety management has moved away from capturing frontline failures toward the management of systemic conditions through organizational safety management systems (SMS). However, subjective differences can influence the classification of active failures and their associated systemic precursors. With levels of professional experience known to influence safety attitudes, the present research examines whether experience levels among airline pilots had an impact on the classification of causal factors using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). Differences in the paths of association between categories were evaluated in an open-system context.MethodPilots working in a large, international airline were categorized into high (≥10,000 total flight hours) and low (<10,000 h) experience groups and asked to classify aircraft accident causal factors using the HFACS framework. One-way ANOVA tests were carried out to determine experience effects on the utilization of the HFACS categories, and chi-squared analyses were used to assess the strength of association between different categories within the framework.ResultsResults from 144 valid responses revealed differences in the attribution of human factors conditions. The high experience group was more inclined to attribute deficiencies to high-level precursors and found fewer paths of associations between different categories. In contrast, the low experience group presented a greater number of associations and was comparatively more affected by stress and uncertainty conditions.DiscussionThe results confirm that the classification of safety factors can be influenced by professional experience, with hierarchical power distance impacting the attribution of failures to higher-level organizational faults. Different paths of association between the two groups also suggest that safety interventions can be targeted through different entry points. Where multiple latent conditions are associated, the selection of safety interventions should be made with consideration of the concerns, influences, and actions across the entire system. Higher-level anthropological interventions can change the interactive interfaces affecting concerns, influences, and actions across all levels, whereas frontline-level functional interventions are more efficient for failures linked to many precursor categories.

Dataset Information

Cloud icing by mineral dust and impacts to aviation safety.

Publications

Cloud icing by mineral dust and impacts to aviation safety.

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