A stacked ensemble method for forecasting influenza-like illness visit volumes at emergency departments.

ABSTRACT: Accurate and reliable short-term forecasts of influenza-like illness (ILI) visit volumes at emergency departments can improve staffing and resource allocation decisions within hospitals. In this paper, we developed a stacked ensemble model that averages the predictions from various competing methodologies in the current frontier for ILI-related forecasts. We also constructed a back-of-the-envelope prediction interval for the stacked ensemble, which provides a conservative characterization of the uncertainty in the stacked ensemble predictions. We assessed the accuracy and reliability of our model with 1 to 4 weeks ahead forecast targets using real-time hospital-level data on weekly ILI visit volumes during the 2012-2018 flu seasons in the Alberta Children's Hospital, located in Calgary, Al

SUBMITTER: Novaes de Amorim A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7984626 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature