Dataset Information

Examining SARS-CoV-2 Interventions in Residential Colleges Using an Empirical Network.

ABSTRACT: Universities have turned to SARS-CoV-2 models to examine campus reopening strategies^1-9. While these studies have explored a variety of modeling techniques, all have relied on simulated data. Here, we use an empirical proximity network of college freshmen¹⁰, ascertained using smartphone Bluetooth, to simulate the spread of the virus. We investigate the role of testing, isolation, mask wearing, and social distancing in the presence of implementation challenges and imperfect compliance. Here we show that while frequent testing can drastically reduce spread if mask wearing and social distancing are not widely adopted, testing has limited impact if they are ubiquitous. Furthermore, even moderate levels of immunity can significantly reduce new infections, especially when combined with other interventions. Our findings suggest that while testing and isolation are powerful tools, they have limited benefit if other interventions are widely adopted. If universities can attain high levels of masking and social distancing, they may be able to relax testing frequency to once every two to four weeks.

SUBMITTER: Hambridge HL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7987029 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Examining SARS-CoV-2 Interventions in Residential Colleges Using an Empirical Network.

Hambridge Hali L HL Kahn Rebecca R Onnela Jukka-Pekka JP

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20210410

Universities have turned to SARS-CoV-2 models to examine campus reopening strategies<sup>1-9</sup>. While these studies have explored a variety of modeling techniques, all have relied on simulated data. Here, we use an empirical proximity network of college freshmen<sup>10</sup>, ascertained using smartphone Bluetooth, to simulate the spread of the virus. We investigate the role of testing, isolation, mask wearing, and social distancing in the presence of implementation challenges and imperfect ...[more]

PMID: 33758870

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Project description:BackgroundAirborne pathogens present challenges in settings like jails or prisons with a high density of contacts. The state of Georgia has the highest percentage of its citizens under correctional supervision in the United States. Yet, it had slow COVID vaccine uptake among jail residents, requiring prevention also using non-pharmaceutical interventions. Using a network-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model parameterized with data from the Fulton County Jail, this study investigates the impact of three SARS-CoV-2 prevention strategies: vaccination, contact tracing and quarantining, and jail release to reduce jail population density.MethodsSocial contact networks were simulated at two different overlapping network layers: cell and block. Cell-level contacts represented shared confined sleeping space, whereas block-level contacts represented shared socialization space. Contact tracing and quarantining were simulated at the cell-level or both cell- and block-levels, hereafter referred to as all-level. A reference scenario and nine intervention scenarios were simulated three hundred times to estimate the median and interquartile range (IQR) of the outcome measures. Each scenario simulated a 185-day period to measure the prolonged effects of the interventions amid a potential COVID outbreak in the jail. The cumulative incidence, number of infections averted (NIA), and percentage of infections averted (PIA) were calculated comparing interventions against a base scenario without them. For the seven scenarios involving contact tracing and quarantining, total quarantines over the simulation and the number of quarantines per day were calculated to determine the quarantine requirements. Sensitivity analyses compared the impact of jointly varying vaccination rates and contact tracing rates.ResultsCell-level contact tracing alone was an ineffective intervention (3.2% PIA), but its impact increased in combination with other interventions (i.e., vaccination or increased jail release rate). The other intervention strategies each produced a PIA over 10%, with the jail release scenario producing a PIA of nearly 20% despite only resulting in a 13% reduction in the jail population. The all-level contact tracing only scenario was effective at both 50% and 100% of contacts traced, but feasibility would be limited without a reduction in the jail population.ConclusionsImplementing a combination intervention approach could substantially reduce the morbidity from COVID-19 and future respiratory viruses in this jail setting while providing secondary protection to the community.

Project description:Routine testing for SARS-CoV-2 is rare for institutes of higher education due to prohibitive costs and supply chain delays. During spring 2021, we routinely tested all residential students 1 to 2 times per week using pooled, RNA-extraction-free, reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) testing of saliva at a cost of $0.43/sample with same-day results. The limit of detection was 500 copies/ml on individual samples, and analysis indicates 1,000 and 2,500 copies/ml in pools of 5 and 10, respectively, which is orders of magnitude more sensitive than rapid antigen tests. Importantly, saliva testing flagged 83% of semester positives (43,884 tests administered) and was 95.6% concordant with nasopharyngeal diagnostic results (69.0% concordant on the first test when the nucleocapsid gene (N1) cycle threshold (CT) value was >30). Moreover, testing reduced weekly cases by 59.9% in the spring despite far looser restrictions, allowing for more normalcy while eliminating outbreaks. We also coupled our testing with a survey to clarify symptoms and transmissibility among college-age students. While only 8.5% remained asymptomatic throughout, symptoms were disparate and often cold-like (e.g., only 37.3% developed a fever), highlighting the difficulty with relying on symptom monitoring among this demographic. Based on reported symptom progression, we estimate that we removed 348 days of infectious individuals by routine testing. Interestingly, viral load (CT value) at the time of testing did not affect transmissibility (R2 = 0.0085), though those experiencing noticeable symptoms at the time of testing were more likely to spread the virus to close contacts (31.6% versus 14.3%). Together, our findings support routine testing for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Implementation of cost- and resource-efficient approaches should receive strong consideration in communities that lack herd immunity. IMPORTANCE This study highlights the utility of routine testing for SARS-CoV-2 using pooled saliva while maintaining high sensitivity of detection (under 2,500 copies/ml) and rapid turnaround of high volume (up to 930 samples in 8 h by two technicians and one quantitative PCR [qPCR] machine). This pooled approach allowed us to test all residential students 1 to 2 times per week on our college campus during the spring of 2021 and flagged 83% of our semester positives. Most students were asymptomatic or presented with symptoms mirroring common colds at the time of testing, allowing for removal of infectious individuals before they otherwise would have sought testing. To our knowledge, the total per-sample consumable cost of $0.43 is the lowest to date. With many communities still lagging in vaccination rates, routine testing that is cost-efficient highlights the capacity of the laboratory's role in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Dataset Information

Examining SARS-CoV-2 Interventions in Residential Colleges Using an Empirical Network.

Publications

Examining SARS-CoV-2 Interventions in Residential Colleges Using an Empirical Network.

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