Modelling of optimal vaccination strategies in response to a bioterrorism associated smallpox outbreak.

ABSTRACT: The reemergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism attack is now an increasing and legitimate concern. Advances in synthetic biology have now made it possible for the virus to be synthesized in a laboratory, with methods publicly available. Smallpox introduction into a susceptible population, with increased immunosuppression and an aging population, raises questions of how vaccination should be used in an epidemic situation when supply may be limited. We constructed three modified susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models to simulate targeted, ring and mass vaccination in response to a smallpox outbreak in Sydney, Australia. We used age-specific distributions of susceptibility, infectivity, contact rates, and tested outputs under different assumptions. The number of doses needed of

SUBMITTER: Costantino V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7993194 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature