Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: After several months of "lockdown" as the sole answer to the COVID-19 pandemic, balancing the re-opening of society against the implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures needed for minimizing interpersonal contacts has become important. Here, we present a stochastic model that examines this problem. In our model, people are allowed to move between discrete positions on a one-dimensional grid with viral infection possible when two people are collocated at the same site. Our model features three sets of adjustable parameters, which characterize (i) viral transmission, (ii) viral detection, and (iii) degree of personal mobility, and as such, it is able to provide a qualitative assessment of the potential for second-wave infection outbreaks based on the timing, extent, and pattern of the l

SUBMITTER: Ando S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7994631 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature