Assessing the suitability for Aedes albopictus and dengue transmission risk in China with a delay differential equation model.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is considered non-endemic to mainland China. However, travellers frequently import the virus from overseas and local mosquito species can then spread the disease in the population. As a consequence, mainland China still experiences large dengue outbreaks. Temperature plays a key role in these outbreaks: it affects the development and survival of the vector and the replication rate of the virus. To better understand its implication in the transmission risk of dengue, we developed a delay differential equation model that explicitly simulates temperature-dependent development periods and tested it with collected field data for the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. The model predicts mosquito occurrence locations with a high accuracy (Cohen's κ of 0.78) and realistically replicate

SUBMITTER: Metelmann S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7996998 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature