Dataset Information

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

ABSTRACT: In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's response to announcements of lockdowns-defined as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel-will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we evaluate the effects of lockdowns on human mobility and simulate how these changes may affect epidemic spread by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones. We show that in 2020 following lockdown announcements but prior to their implementation, both local and long distance movement increased in multiple locations, and urban-to-rural migration was observed around the world. To examine how these behavioral responses to lockdown policies may contribute to epidemic spread, we developed a simple agent-based spatial model. Our model shows that this increased movement has the potential to increase seeding of the epidemic in less urban areas, which could undermine the goal of the lockdown in preventing disease spread. Lockdowns play a key role in reducing contacts and controlling outbreaks, but appropriate messaging surrounding their announcement and careful evaluation of changes in mobility are needed to mitigate the possible unintended consequences.

SUBMITTER: Kishore N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7997886 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Kishore Nishant N Kahn Rebecca R Martinez Pamela P PP De Salazar Pablo M PM Mahmud Ayesha S AS Buckee Caroline O CO

Scientific reports 20210326 1

In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's response to announcements of lockdowns-defined as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel-will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we evaluate the effects of lockdowns on human mobility and simulate how these changes may affect epidemic spread by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phon ...[more]

PMID: 33772076

Similar Datasets

Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has killed over 6 million people and is having a devastating social and economic impact around the world. The rise of new variants of concern (VOCs) represents a difficult challenge due to the loss of vaccine and natural immunity, as well as increased transmissibility. All VOCs contain mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which mediates fusion between the viral and host cell membranes. The spike glycoprotein binds to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) via its receptor binding domain (RBD) initiating the infection process. Attempting to understand the effect of RBD mutations in VOCs, a lot of attention has been given to the RBD-ACE2 interaction. However, this type of analysis ignores more indirect effects, such as the conformational dynamics of the RBD itself. Observing that some mutations occur in residues that are not in direct contact with ACE2, we hypothesized that they could affect the RBD conformational dynamics. To test this, we performed long atomistic (AA) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the structural dynamics of wt RBD, and that of four VOCs (Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron). Our results show that the wt RBD presents two distinct conformations: an "open" conformation where it is free to bind ACE2; and a "closed" conformation, where the RBM ridge blocks the binding surface. The Alpha and Beta variants shift the open/closed equilibrium towards the open conformation by roughly 20%, likely increasing ACE2 binding affinity. Simulations of the Delta and Omicron variants showed extreme results, with the closed conformation being rarely observed. The Delta variant also differed substantially from the other variants, alternating between the open conformation and an alternative "reversed" one, with a significantly changed orientation of the RBM ridge. This alternate conformation could provide a fitness advantage due to increased availability for ACE2 binding, and by aiding antibody escape through epitope occlusion. These results support the hypothesis that VOCs, and particularly the Omicron and Delta variants, impact RBD conformational dynamics in a direction that promotes efficient binding to ACE2 and, in the case of Delta, may assist antibody escape.

Dataset Information

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Publications

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets