SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence during the first and second COVID-19 waves in Italy.

ABSTRACT: We assessed the relation between COVID-19 waves in Italy, which was severely affected during the pandemic. We evaluated the hypothesis that a larger impact from the first wave (February-May 2020) predicts a smaller peak during the second wave (September-October 2020), in the absence of local changes in public health interventions and area-specific differences in time trends of environmental parameters. Based on publicly available data on province-specific SARS-CoV-2 infections and both crude and multivariable cubic spline regression models, we found that for provinces with the lowest incidence rates in the first wave, the incidence in the second wave increased roughly in proportion with the incidence in the first wave until an incidence of about 500-600 cases/100,000 in the first wave. Abo

SUBMITTER: Vinceti M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8012166 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature