Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities.

ABSTRACT: The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction

SUBMITTER: Gros C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8016333 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature