Natural variability contributes to model-satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming.

ABSTRACT: A long-standing discrepancy exists between general circulation models (GCMs) and satellite observations: The multimodel mean temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT) in the tropics warms at approximately twice the rate of observations. Using a large ensemble of simulations from a single climate model, we find that tropical TMT trends (1979-2018) vary widely and that a subset of realizations are within the range of satellite observations. Realizations with relatively small tropical TMT trends are accompanied by subdued sea-surface warming in the tropical central and eastern Pacific. Observed changes in sea-surface temperature have a similar pattern, implying that the observed tropical TMT trend has been reduced by multidecadal variability. We also assess the latest generation of GCMs from th

SUBMITTER: Po-Chedley S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8020635 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature