ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PAST VALUES IN PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE FOR MOST COUNTRIES.

ABSTRACT: Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries based on Bayesian hierarchical models for total fertility and life expectancy. The estimates of these models and the resulting projections are conditional on the UN's official estimates of past values. However, these past values are themselves uncertain, particularly for the majority of the world's countries that do not have longstanding high-quality vital registration systems, when they rely on surveys and censuses with their own biases and measurement errors. This paper extends the UN model for projecting future total fert

SUBMITTER: Liu P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8020736 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature