Dataset Information

COVID-IRS: A novel predictive score for risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease that can rapidly progress into acute respiratory failure and death. Timely identification of these patients is crucial for a proper administration of health-care resources.

Objective

To develop a predictive score that estimates the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) among patients with COVID-19.

Study design

Retrospective cohort study of 401 COVID-19 patients diagnosed from March 12, to August 10, 2020. The score development cohort comprised 211 patients (52.62% of total sample) whereas the validation cohort included 190 patients (47.38% of total sample). We divided participants according to the need of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and looked for potential predictive variables.

Results

We developed two predictive scores, one based on Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and the other one on the Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), using the following variables: respiratory rate, SpO2/FiO2 ratio and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH). The area under the curve (AUC) in the development cohort was 0.877 (0.823-0.931) using the NLR based score and 0.891 (0.843-0.939) using the IL-6 based score. When compared with other similar scores developed for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19, the COVID-IRS scores proved to be superior in the prediction of IMV.

Conclusion

The COVID-IRS scores accurately predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients using readily available variables taken upon admission. More studies testing the applicability of COVID-IRS in other centers and populations, as well as its performance as a triage tool for COVID-19 patients are needed.

SUBMITTER: Garcia-Gordillo JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8021150 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

COVID-IRS: A novel predictive score for risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

Garcia-Gordillo José Antonio JA Camiro-Zúñiga Antonio A Aguilar-Soto Mercedes M Cuenca Dalia D Cadena-Fernández Arturo A Khouri Latife Salame LS Rayek Jesica Naanous JN Mercado Moises M

PloS one 20210405 4

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease that can rapidly progress into acute respiratory failure and death. Timely identification of these patients is crucial for a proper administration of health-care resources.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a predictive score that estimates the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) among patients with COVID-19.<h4>Study design</h4>Retrospective cohort study of 401 COVID-19 patients diagnosed from March 12, to August 1 ...[more]

PMID: 33819261

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Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to develop prognostic models for predicting the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19 and compare their performance with the Respiratory rate-OXygenation (ROX) index.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted using data collected between March 2020 and August 2021 at three hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. ICU patients aged 18 years and older with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were screened. The exclusion criteria were patients who received IMV within the first 24 h of ICU admission, pregnancy, clinical decision for minimal end-of-life care and missing primary outcome data. Clinical and laboratory variables were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to select predictor variables. Models were based on the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and lowest AIC with significant p values. Assessment of predictive performance was done for discrimination and calibration. Areas under the curves (AUC)s were compared using DeLong's algorithm. Models were validated externally using an international database.ResultsOf 656 patients screened, 346 patients were included; 155 required IMV (44.8%), 191 did not (55.2%), and 207 patients were male (59.8%). According to the lowest AIC, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, heart rate, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), temperature, respiratory effort signals, and leukocytes were identified as predictors of IMV at hospital admission. According to AIC with significant p values, SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals were the best predictors of IMV; odds ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.46 (1.07-2.05), 0.81 (0.72-0.90), 9.13 (3.29-28.67), respectively. The ROX index at admission was lower in the IMV group than in the non-IMV group (7.3 [5.2-9.8] versus 9.6 [6.8-12.9], p < 0.001, respectively). In the external validation population, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROX index was 0.683 (accuracy 63%), the AIC model showed an AUC of 0.703 (accuracy 69%), and the lowest AIC model with significant p values had an AUC of 0.725 (accuracy 79%).ConclusionsIn the development population of ICU patients with COVID-19, SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals predicted the need for IMV better than the ROX index. In the external validation population, although the AUCs did not differ significantly, the accuracy was higher when using SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals compared to the ROX index. This suggests that these variables may be more useful in predicting the need for IMV in ICU patients with COVID-19.ClinicaltrialsGov identifierNCT05663528.

Project description:BackgroundPredicting the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) is important for the allocation of human and technological resources, improvement of surveillance, and use of effective therapeutic measures. This study aimed (i) to assess whether the ABC2-SPH score is able to predict the receipt of IMV in COVID-19 patients; (ii) to compare its performance with other existing scores; (iii) to perform score recalibration, and to assess whether recalibration improved prediction.MethodsRetrospective observational cohort, which included adult laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted in 32 hospitals, from 14 Brazilian cities. This study was conducted in two stages: (i) for the assessment of the ABC2-SPH score and comparison with other available scores, patients hospitalized from July 31, 2020, to March 31, 2022, were included; (ii) for ABC2-SPH score recalibration and also comparison with other existing scores, patients admitted from January 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, were enrolled. For both steps, the area under the receiving operator characteristic score (AUROC) was calculated for all scores, while a calibration plot was assessed only for the ABC2-SPH score. Comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores followed the Delong Test recommendations. Logistic recalibration methods were used to improve results and adapt to the studied sample.ResultsOverall, 9,350 patients were included in the study, the median age was 58.5 (IQR 47.0-69.0) years old, and 45.4% were women. Of those, 33.5% were admitted to the ICU, 25.2% received IMV, and 17.8% died. The ABC2-SPH score showed a significantly greater discriminatory capacity, than the CURB-65, STSS, and SUM scores, with potentialized results when we consider only patients younger than 80 years old (AUROC 0.714 [95% CI 0.698-0.731]). Thus, after the ABC2-SPH score recalibration, we observed improvements in calibration (slope = 1.135, intercept = 0.242) and overall performance (Brier score = 0.127).ConclusionThe ABC2-SPHr risk score demonstrated a good performance to predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 hospitalized patients under 80 years of age.

Project description:ObjectivesPatients with COVID-19 frequently develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Data on long-term survival of these patients are lacking. The authors investigated 1-year survival, quality of life, and functional recovery of patients with COVID-19 ARDS requiring invasive mechanical ventilation.DesignProspective observational study.SettingTertiary-care university hospital.ParticipantsAll patients with COVID-19 ARDS receiving invasive mechanical ventilation and discharged alive from hospital.InterventionsPatients were contacted by phone after 1 year. Functional, cognitive, and psychological outcomes were explored through a questionnaire and assessed using validated scales. Patients were offered the possibility to undergo a follow-up chest computed tomography (CT) scan.Measurements and main resultsThe study included all adult (age ≥18 years) patients with COVID-19-related ARDS admitted to an ICU of the authors' institution between February 25, 2020, and April 27, 2020, who received at least 1 day of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Of 116 patients who received IMV, 61 (52.6%) survived to hospital discharge. These survivors were assessed 1 year after discharge and 56 completed a battery of tests of cognition, activities of daily living, and interaction with family members. They had overall good functional recovery, with >80% reporting good recovery and no difficulties in usual activities. A total of 52 (93%) of patients had no dyspnea at rest. Severe anxiety/depression was reported by 5 (8.9%) patients. Comparing 2-month and 1-year data, the authors observed the most significant improvements in the areas of working status and exertional dyspnea. One-year chest CT scans were available for 36 patients; fibrotic-like changes were present in 4 patients.ConclusionsAll patients who survived the acute phase of COVID-19 and were discharged from the hospital were alive at the 1-year follow up, and the vast majority of them had good overall recovery and quality of life.

Dataset Information

COVID-IRS: A novel predictive score for risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

Background

Objective

Study design

Results

Conclusion

Publications

COVID-IRS: A novel predictive score for risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

Similar Datasets

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