Early warning of hand, foot, and mouth disease transmission: A modeling study in mainland, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease; particularly, it has a high disease burden in China. This study was aimed to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease by analyzing its epidemiological characteristics, and to calculate the early warning signals of HFMD by using a logistic differential equation (LDE) model.

Methods

This study included datasets of HFMD cases reported in seven regions in Mainland China. The early warning time (week) was calculated using the LDE model with the key parameters estimated by fitting with the data. Two key time points, "epidemic acceleration week (EAW)" and "recommended warning week (RWW)", were calculated to show the early warning time.

Results

The mean annual incidence of HFMD

SUBMITTER: Rui J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8021164 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature