Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989-2018) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple m

SUBMITTER: Guo S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8040788 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature