Predicted impacts of government policies and actions on the SARS-CoV-2 disease in the northwestern Himalayan region, India.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region.

Subject and methods

We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Results

SUBMITTER: Haq SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8049861 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature