A prognostic dynamic model applicable to infectious diseases providing easily visualized guides: a case study of COVID-19 in the UK.

ABSTRACT: A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases' transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized comprehensive regulation of disease control measures. We classified government interventions into three categories and introduced three parameters as descriptions for the key points in disease control, these being intraregional growth rate, interregional communication rate, and detection rate of infectors. Our simulation predicts the infection by COVID-19 in the UK would be out of control in 73 days without any interventions; at the same time, herd immunity acquisition will begin from the epicentre. After we introduced government interventions, a single inte

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8052322 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature