Cross-country connectedness in inflation and unemployment: measurement and macroeconomic consequences.

ABSTRACT: We bring the notion of connectedness (Diebold and Yilmaz, Int J Forecast 28(1):57-66 2012) to a set of two critical macroeconomic variables as inflation and unemployment. We focus on the G7 economies plus Spain, and use monthly data-high-frequency data in a macro setting-to explore the extent and consequences of total and directional volatility spillovers across variables and countries. We find that total connectedness is larger for prices (58.28%) than for unemployment (41.81%). We also identify asymmetries per country that result in higher short-run Phillips curve trade-offs in recessions and lower trade-offs in expansions. Besides, by exploring time-varying connectedness (resulting from country-specific shocks), we find that volatility spillovers magnify in periods of common economic tu

SUBMITTER: Pham BT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8056377 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature