Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic is reaching its final phase in China. The epidemic data are available for a complete assessment of epidemiological parameters in all regions and time periods.

Methods

This study aims to present a spatiotemporal epidemic model based on spatially stratified heterogeneity (SSH) to simulate the epidemic spread. A susceptible-exposed/latent-infected-removed (SEIR) model was constructed for each SSH-identified stratum (each administrative city) to estimate the spatiotemporal epidemiological parameters of the outbreak.

Results

We estimated that the mean latent and removed periods were 5.40 and 2.13 days, respectively. There was an average of 1.72 latent or infected persons per 10,000 Wuhan travelers to other locations unti

SUBMITTER: Hu B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8056483 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature