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Forecasting the final disease size: comparing calibrations of Bertalanffy-Putter models.

ABSTRACT: Using monthly data from the Ebola-outbreak 2013-2016 in West Africa, we compared two calibrations for data fitting, least-squares (SSE) and weighted least-squares (SWSE) with weights reciprocal to the number of new infections. To compare (in hindsight) forecasts for the final disease size (the actual value was observed at month 28 of the outbreak) we fitted Bertalanffy-Pütter growth models to truncated initial data (first 11, 12, …, 28 months). The growth curves identified the epidemic peak at month 10 and the relative errors of the forecasts (asymptotic limits) were below 10%, if 16 or more month were used; for SWSE the relative errors were smaller than for SSE. However, the calibrations differed insofar as for SWSE there were good fitting models that forecasted reasonable upper and lower bounds, while SSE was biased, as the forecasts of good fitting models systematically underestimated the final disease size. Furthermore, for SSE the normal distribution hypothesis of the fit residuals was refuted, while the similar hypothesis for SWSE was not refuted. We therefore recommend considering SWSE for epidemic forecasts.

SUBMITTER: Brunner N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8057487 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting the final disease size: comparing calibrations of Bertalanffy-Pütter models.

Brunner Norbert N Kühleitner Manfred M

Epidemiology and infection 20201228

Using monthly data from the Ebola-outbreak 2013-2016 in West Africa, we compared two calibrations for data fitting, least-squares (SSE) and weighted least-squares (SWSE) with weights reciprocal to the number of new infections. To compare (in hindsight) forecasts for the final disease size (the actual value was observed at month 28 of the outbreak) we fitted Bertalanffy-Pütter growth models to truncated initial data (first 11, 12, …, 28 months). The growth curves identified the epidemic peak at m ...[more]

PMID: 33357248

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Project description:BackgroundMonkeypox virus is gaining attention due to its severity and spread among people. This study sheds light on the modeling and forecasting of new monkeypox cases. Knowledge about the future situation of the virus using a more accurate time series and stochastic models is required for future actions and plans to cope with the challenge.MethodsWe conduct a side-by-side comparison of the machine learning approach with the traditional time series model. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP), a machine learning technique, and the Box-Jenkins methodology, also known as the ARIMA model, are used for classical modeling. Both methods are applied to the Monkeypox cumulative data set and compared using different model selection criteria such as root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error.ResultsWith a root mean square error of 150.78, the monkeypox series follows the ARIMA (7,1,7) model among the other potential models. Comparatively, we use the multilayer perceptron (MLP) model, which employs the sigmoid activation function and has a different number of hidden neurons in a single hidden layer. The root mean square error of the MLP model, which uses a single input and ten hidden neurons, is 54.40, significantly lower than that of the ARIMA model. The actual confirmed cases versus estimated or fitted plots also demonstrate that the multilayer perceptron model has a better fit for the monkeypox data than the ARIMA model.Conclusions and recommendationWhen it comes to predicting monkeypox, the machine learning method outperforms the traditional time series. A better match can be achieved in future studies by applying the extreme learning machine model (ELM), support vector machine (SVM), and some other methods with various activation functions. It is thus concluded that the selected data provide a real picture of the virus. If the situations remain the same, governments and other stockholders should ensure the follow-up of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) among the masses, as the trends will continue rising in the upcoming 10 days. However, governments should take some serious interventions to cope with the virus.LimitationIn the ARIMA models selected for forecasting, we did not incorporate the effect of covariates such as the effect of net migration of monkeypox virus patients, government interventions, etc.

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Forecasting the final disease size: comparing calibrations of Bertalanffy-Putter models.

Publications

Forecasting the final disease size: comparing calibrations of Bertalanffy-Pütter models.

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