Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention.

ABSTRACT: An epidemic can be characterized by its strength (i.e., the reproductive number [Formula: see text]) and speed (i.e., the exponential growth rate r). Disease modellers have historically placed much more emphasis on strength, in part because the effectiveness of an intervention strategy is typically evaluated on this scale. Here, we develop a mathematical framework for the classic, strength-based paradigm and show that there is a dual speed-based paradigm which can provide complementary insights. In particular, we note that r = 0 is a threshold for disease spread, just like [Formula: see text] [ 1], and show that we can measure the strength and speed of an intervention on the same scale as the strength and speed of an epidemic, respectively. We argue that, while the strength-b

SUBMITTER: Dushoff J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8059560 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature