Dataset Information

Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan.

ABSTRACT: In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection generally has occurred during autumn and winter. However, a possible change in the seasonal trend of RSV infection has been observed recently. The current study was conducted to determine whether the epidemic season of RSV infection in Japan has indeed changed significantly. We used expectation-based Poisson scan statistics to detect periods with high weekly reported RSV cases (epidemic cluster), and the epidemic clusters were detected between September and December in the 2012-2016 seasons while those were detected between July and October in the 2017-2019 seasons. Non-linear and linear ordinary least squares regression models were built to evaluate whether there is a difference in year trend in the epidemic seasonality, and the epidemic season was shifted to earlier in the year in 2017-2019 compared to that in 2012-2016. Although the reason for the shift is unclear, this information may help in clinical practice and public health.

SUBMITTER: Miyama T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8060823 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan.

Miyama Takeshi T Iritani Nobuhiro N Nishio Takayuki T Ukai Tomohiko T Satsuki Yuka Y Miyata Hiromi H Shintani Ayumi A Hiroi Satoshi S Motomura Kazushi K Kobayashi Kazuo K

Epidemiology and infection 20210211

In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection generally has occurred during autumn and winter. However, a possible change in the seasonal trend of RSV infection has been observed recently. The current study was conducted to determine whether the epidemic season of RSV infection in Japan has indeed changed significantly. We used expectation-based Poisson scan statistics to detect periods with high weekly reported RSV cases (epidemic cluster), and the epidemic clusters were detected betwee ...[more]

PMID: 33568242

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Project description:Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children worldwide. An annual epidemic of RSV infection generally begins around autumn, reaching a peak at the end of year in Japan, but in 2017 it started in early July and peaked in September. As the onset timing of RSV season varies, it is important to detect the beginning of an epidemic, to enable the implementation of preventive measures. However, there are currently no specified criteria or methods to determine the onset of RSV season in a timely manner. Therefore, we developed a model to detect the epidemic onset, based on data from the Infectious Diseases Weekly Report from 2012 to 2017. The 47 prefectures of Japan span 11 climate zones, which affect the timing of epidemic onset. Therefore, the onset of RSV season was assessed separately in each prefecture. Non-linear regression analysis was performed to generate a mathematical model of the annual epidemic cycle for each prefecture. A search index was used to determine the onset of RSV season, which was estimated using the number of RSV reports per week within an epidemic period (RSV-reports/w) and the number of reported cases included within an epidemic period relative to the total number of RSV reports (capture rate). A number of RSV-reports/w, which was used as a threshold (a number at onset line) to determine the condition of the onset of RSV season, was then estimated based on the search index. The mean number at the onset of RSV season for 47 prefectures was 29.7 reports/week (median 21.0, range 6.0-121.0 reports/ week). The model also showed that the onset of RSV season in 2017 was more than 1 month earlier than the previous year. In conclusion, the model detected epidemic cycles and their onset conditions in all prefectures, despite the 11 climate zones of Japan. The results are expected to contribute to infant medical care by allowing medical personnel to take preventive measures promptly at the beginning of the epidemic RSV season.

Project description:IntroductionRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the major causes of respiratory tract infections among children. Until recently, the monoclonal antibody palivizumab was the only RSV prophylaxis available in Japan. In 2024, the bivalent RSV prefusion F protein-based (RSVpreF) vaccine was approved for the prevention of RSV infection in infants by active immunization of pregnant women. In this study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of a combined strategy of RSVpreF vaccine and palivizumab in Japanese setting.MethodsUsing a Markov model, we evaluated prevented cases and deaths of medically attended RSV infections from birth to age 11 months for each of the three healthcare settings: inpatient (hospitalization), emergency department visits, and outpatient visits. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated from economic outcomes (intervention costs, medication costs, and productivity losses) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Further, we calculated the maximum price of RSVpreF vaccine within which the program would be cost-effective.ResultsIn comparison with the current prophylaxis (palivizumab alone), a combined prophylaxis of year-round RSVpreF vaccination of pregnant women and palivizumab prescription for premature infants born in < 32 weeks gestational age (wGA) and all infants with high risk prevented 14,382 medically attended cases of RSV (hospitalization, 7490 cases; emergency department, 2239 cases; outpatient, 4653 cases) and 7 deaths, respectively. From a healthcare payer perspective, when the price of RSVpreF vaccine was equal to or less than ¥23,948 (US $182), a combination prophylaxis was cost-effective under the ICER threshold of ¥5 million per QALY. The other combination prophylaxis of year-round RSVpreF vaccination and palivizumab prescription of premature born in < 32 wGA regardless of risk in infants was a dominant strategy (more effective and less costly).ConclusionA combined prophylaxis of year-round RSVpreF vaccine and palivizumab could be a cost-effective strategy to protect neonates throughout the infant stage (< 1 years old) in Japan.

Dataset Information

Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan.

Publications

Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan.

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