Dataset Information

Modeling the spread of fake news on Twitter.

ABSTRACT: Fake news can have a significant negative impact on society because of the growing use of mobile devices and the worldwide increase in Internet access. It is therefore essential to develop a simple mathematical model to understand the online dissemination of fake news. In this study, we propose a point process model of the spread of fake news on Twitter. The proposed model describes the spread of a fake news item as a two-stage process: initially, fake news spreads as a piece of ordinary news; then, when most users start recognizing the falsity of the news item, that itself spreads as another news story. We validate this model using two datasets of fake news items spread on Twitter. We show that the proposed model is superior to the current state-of-the-art methods in accurately predicting the evolution of the spread of a fake news item. Moreover, a text analysis suggests that our model appropriately infers the correction time, i.e., the moment when Twitter users start realizing the falsity of the news item. The proposed model contributes to understanding the dynamics of the spread of fake news on social media. Its ability to extract a compact representation of the spreading pattern could be useful in the detection and mitigation of fake news.

SUBMITTER: Murayama T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8062041 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modeling the spread of fake news on Twitter.

Murayama Taichi T Wakamiya Shoko S Aramaki Eiji E Kobayashi Ryota R

PloS one 20210422 4

Fake news can have a significant negative impact on society because of the growing use of mobile devices and the worldwide increase in Internet access. It is therefore essential to develop a simple mathematical model to understand the online dissemination of fake news. In this study, we propose a point process model of the spread of fake news on Twitter. The proposed model describes the spread of a fake news item as a two-stage process: initially, fake news spreads as a piece of ordinary news; t ...[more]

PMID: 33886665

Similar Datasets

Project description:Disinformation (fake news) is a major problem that affects modern populations, especially in an era when information can be spread from one corner of the world to another in just one click. The diffusion of misinformation becomes more problematic when it addresses issues related to health, as it can affect people at both the individual and population levels. Through the ideas proposed by cultural evolution theory, in this study, we seek to understand the dynamics of disseminating messages (cultural traits) with untrue content (maladaptive traits). For our investigation, we used the scenario caused by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as a model. The instability caused by the pandemic provides a good model for the study of adapted and maladaptive traits, as the information can directly affect individual and population fitness. Through data collected on the Twitter platform (259,176 tweets) and using machine learning techniques and web scraping, we built a predictive model to analyze the following questions: (1) Is false information more shared? (2) Is false information more adopted? (3) Do people with social prestige influence the dissemination of maladaptive traits of COVID-19? We observed that fake news features contained in messages with false information were shared and adopted as unblemished messages. We also observed that social prestige was not a determining factor for the diffusion of maladaptive traits. Even with the ability to allow connections between individuals participating in social media, some factors such as attachment to cultural traits and the formation of social bubbles can favor isolation and decrease connectivity between individuals. Consequently, in the scenario of isolation between groups and low connectivity between individuals, there is a reduction in cultural exchange between people, which interferes with the dynamics of the selection of cultural traits. Thus, maladaptive (harmful) traits are favored and maintained in the cultural system. We also argue that the local Brazilian cultural context can be a determining factor for maintaining maladaptive traits. We conclude that in an unstable (pandemic) scenario, the information transmitted on Twitter is not reliable in relation to the increase in fitness, which may occur because of the low cultural exchange promoted by the personalization of the social network and cultural context of the population.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42979-021-00836-w.

Project description:Understanding the spread of false or dangerous beliefs-often called misinformation or disinformation-through a population has never seemed so urgent. Network science researchers have often taken a page from epidemiologists, and modeled the spread of false beliefs as similar to how a disease spreads through a social network. However, absent from those disease-inspired models is an internal model of an individual's set of current beliefs, where cognitive science has increasingly documented how the interaction between mental models and incoming messages seems to be crucially important for their adoption or rejection. Some computational social science modelers analyze agent-based models where individuals do have simulated cognition, but they often lack the strengths of network science, namely in empirically-driven network structures. We introduce a cognitive cascade model that combines a network science belief cascade approach with an internal cognitive model of the individual agents as in opinion diffusion models as a public opinion diffusion (POD) model, adding media institutions as agents which begin opinion cascades. We show that the model, even with a very simplistic belief function to capture cognitive effects cited in disinformation study (dissonance and exposure), adds expressive power over existing cascade models. We conduct an analysis of the cognitive cascade model with our simple cognitive function across various graph topologies and institutional messaging patterns. We argue from our results that population-level aggregate outcomes of the model qualitatively match what has been reported in COVID-related public opinion polls, and that the model dynamics lend insights as to how to address the spread of problematic beliefs. The overall model sets up a framework with which social science misinformation researchers and computational opinion diffusion modelers can join forces to understand, and hopefully learn how to best counter, the spread of disinformation and "alternative facts."

Project description:BackgroundProliferation of misinformation in digital news environments can harm society in a number of ways, but its dangers are most acute when citizens believe that false news is factually accurate. A recent wave of empirical research focuses on factors that explain why people fall for the so-called fake news. In this scoping review, we summarize the results of experimental studies that test different predictors of individuals' belief in misinformation.MethodsThe review is based on a synthetic analysis of 26 scholarly articles. The authors developed and applied a search protocol to two academic databases, Scopus and Web of Science. The sample included experimental studies that test factors influencing users' ability to recognize fake news, their likelihood to trust it or intention to engage with such content. Relying on scoping review methodology, the authors then collated and summarized the available evidence.ResultsThe study identifies three broad groups of factors contributing to individuals' belief in fake news. Firstly, message characteristics-such as belief consistency and presentation cues-can drive people's belief in misinformation. Secondly, susceptibility to fake news can be determined by individual factors including people's cognitive styles, predispositions, and differences in news and information literacy. Finally, accuracy-promoting interventions such as warnings or nudges priming individuals to think about information veracity can impact judgements about fake news credibility. Evidence suggests that inoculation-type interventions can be both scalable and effective. We note that study results could be partly driven by design choices such as selection of stimuli and outcome measurement.ConclusionsWe call for expanding the scope and diversifying designs of empirical investigations of people's susceptibility to false information online. We recommend examining digital platforms beyond Facebook, using more diverse formats of stimulus material and adding a comparative angle to fake news research.

Dataset Information

Modeling the spread of fake news on Twitter.

Publications

Modeling the spread of fake news on Twitter.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets